AI is splitting labour markets in two: workers with AI skills earn more, while middle-skilled roles face the sharpest exposure to automation.
The IMF's 2026 Annual Report, Navigating a Precarious World, released on 23 September, puts AI at the centre of a structural shift in how economies grow, how companies invest and how workers are rewarded.
In 2025, technology investments related to AI added an estimated 0.5 percentage point to US GDP growth. Private-sector-driven investment in AI could top $2 trillion globally in 2026, according to some external estimates, making it among the fastest-growing drivers of growth in recent years.
As global spending shifts to deploying this technology across sectors, AI-driven productivity gains could accelerate across a broad range of industries and occupations.
The gains, however, are not evenly distributed. IMF research shows that people with jobs requiring AI-related skills earn more, but cities and regions with more of these jobs are not experiencing overall job growth.
Policymakers, households, and businesses are increasingly concerned about how AI will transform labour markets — it could increasingly displace jobs and depress wages for certain segments of the workforce.
Workers with AI skills are benefiting, as are people in low-skill roles — such as restaurant staff — who provide services to higher earners. Left out are middle-skilled workers whose jobs are highly exposed to automation.
The IMF is helping members guard against the economic, financial stability, and fiscal risks that could emanate from an AI bust — especially where debt is already high — while still robustly pursuing its benefits.
