A Goldman Sachs report published on 29 July finds that generative AI is more likely to transform work in India than eliminate it, with the impact falling unevenly across occupations and sectors.
The report estimates that Gen-AI could automate between 9 and 17 per cent of tasks currently performed by India's non-agricultural workforce, depending on the complexity of tasks the technology becomes capable of handling. At the same time, only 8 to 12 per cent of jobs face a meaningful substitution risk, while 42 to 48 per cent of non-agricultural employment is expected to be complemented by AI to increase productivity without displacement.
Santanu Sengupta, Goldman Sachs Research's chief economist, is quoted in the report as saying Gen-AI's reach depends heavily on assumptions about task complexity. The report concludes that most occupations will combine tasks AI can perform with activities requiring human judgement, creativity and physical skills.
Knowledge-intensive sectors are expected to gain the most. Healthcare, education, media, financial services and professional services are cited as likely beneficiaries, given their reliance on information analysis, content creation and decision-making. Manufacturing, construction and textiles are expected to see comparatively modest gains because a larger share of work in those industries remains physical.
Clerical support roles and knowledge professionals carry the greatest substitution risk, the report notes, while physically intensive occupations are largely insulated.
On the macroeconomic side, Goldman Sachs projects that Gen-AI adoption could raise India's annual labour productivity growth by around 0.4 percentage points over the next decade under its baseline scenario, with the range running from 0.1 to 0.8 percentage points depending on how capable AI becomes. The report notes that realising those gains will require significant investment in digital infrastructure, including data centres and computing capacity.
